The weekly market update would like to announce some changes to the team. Unfortunately, Apr 24 supply contract will be leaving us soon, but we are pleased to announce that Apr 25 supply contract has joined us, and we look forward to seeing how they progress.
We wish Apr 24 supply contract well.
So, we have definitely seen a shift in pricing mentality, with the large price falls seen over the last month now eroded, as both gas & electricity markets continue to rise. There is no one clear driver. Supply is a bit lower than demand, but nothing outrageous. Oil, coal and carbon prices aren’t doing anything spectacular either. Latest numbers below.
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Variance over the last.. |
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|
Gas |
indicative p/kWh* | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|
Apr 24 start date |
4.13 |
5.66% |
7.65% |
-34.42% |
-58.50% |
|
Oct 24 start date |
4.21 |
4.13% |
6.49% |
-26.13% |
-55.41% |
|
Apr 25 start date |
4.24 | 3.11% | 5.17% | -23.12% |
-53.46% |
|
Variance over the last.. |
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|
Elec |
indicative p/kWh* |
1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|
Apr 24 start date |
19.35 |
0.60% |
7.17% |
-18.07% |
-46.05% |
|
Oct 24 start date |
19.59 |
0.21% |
7.39% |
-13.38% |
-43.81% |
|
Apr 25 start date |
19.73 | 0.15% | 7.69% | -10.83% |
-40.44% |
Elections tend to get commodity markets excited, and with a UK election due anytime within the next 9 months, and the presidential election race (if you can call it that..) already underway, maybe this is a start of a period of bullishness (what is that?).
I am unsure that the large increase over the last few weeks is unsustainable given the clear lack of fundamentals, so I would expect to see some decent retracement this week. That being said, if you zoom out the trend is definitely upwards.
Recommendations
- April 2024 Renewals – buy now if you haven’t already.
- October 2024 Renewals- Risk averse buyers should look at pricing now to see how this sits against your budget. Risk takers should look at pricing mid Q2.
- April 2025 Renewals – there is only a small premium on Apr 25 contracts compared to Apr 24, so the risk averse may wish to look at prices sooner rather than later and take the value on the table while you have it.
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*Please note that the above figures are estimates based on current market conditions and should not be misconstrued as actual live prices.