We saw a decent price correction over the last week, with both gas and electricity wholesale prices rising c5%.
It was coming and let’s not forget we have had months of continued wholesale price falls, and prices are still attractive. It is just those pesky non-energy costs (what are they?) that are keeping businesses unit rates high for some.
Key drivers were lower than expected renewable generation, (mainly wind) coupled by some concerns around other sources of energy such as reduced LNG shipments (what are they?) and higher energy demand across the continent, impacting supply/demand fundamentals.
|
04/03/2024 |
Variance over the last.. |
||||
| Gas |
indicative p/kWh* |
1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
12 months |
|
Apr 24 12months |
3.91 | 5.09% | -8.07% | -37.88% |
-60.68% |
|
Oct 24 12months |
4.05 |
4.95% | -7.29% | -28.88% |
-57.07% |
|
Basket Average |
3.73 |
6.94% | -17.06% | -34.52% |
-60.48% |
|
04/03/2024 |
Variance over the last.. |
||||
| Electricity |
indicative p/kWh* |
1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
| Apr 24 12 months |
18.92 |
6.02% |
-3.79% | -19.90% |
-47.26% |
| Oct 24 12 months |
19.26 |
6.43% |
-3.17% |
-14.85% |
-44.76% |
| Basket Average |
18.12 |
2.26% |
-15.60% |
-19.89% |
-48.04% |
Looking forward, if this cold weather persists then we will continue to see volatility over the coming weeks, although seasonal normal temperatures are expected over the next week or two.
As per previous weeks rhetoric, I suspect we are near the bottom and like anything that hits the bottom, markets tend to bounce around a little until things settle..
Recommendations
- April 2024 Renewals – If you are yet to secure your April 24 renewal, I would purchase asap. Time has run out and if the market moves against you there is no time to wait for it to retrace. Risk averse types should consider 2-year deals, risk takers could look at 6 months.
- October 2024 Renewals- There is value here and the risk averse buyer should look at pricing now to see how this sits against your budget. Risk takers should wait until at least end of Q1.
To request a no obligation quote for your business, please do complete the following form.
*Please note that the above figures are estimates based on current market conditions and should not be misconstrued as actual live prices.