For the first time this year we have seen red in the 1-month variance column. That is, the Oct24 wholesale prices are now higher than they were 1 month ago. This is a strong visual indicator that the market is on the turn, following several months of only green values…
Weather continues to be the primary driver of price, but weather only really impacts prompt markets (what is that?). Longer term drivers are more difficult to pinpoint. We are in that space in between things, with the markets looking for clear direction and until we get it, everything is simply conjecture. So, I will shut up.
|
11/03/2024* |
Variance over the last… |
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|
Gas |
indicative p/kWh | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|
Apr 24 start date |
3.91 |
0.08% |
-1.23% |
-37.94% |
-60.72% |
|
Oct 24 start date |
4.04 |
-0.17% |
0.07% |
-29.06% |
-57.18% |
| Basket Average | 3.75 | 7.53% | -6.19% | -34.17% |
-60.26% |
|
11/03/2024 |
Variance over the last… |
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| Electricity |
indicative p/kWh* |
1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
12 months |
| Apr 24 start date |
19.24 |
1.68% |
-0.33% | -18.56% |
-46.37% |
| Oct 24 start date |
19.55 |
1.51% |
0.58% | -13.57% |
-43.93% |
| Basket Average |
17.82 |
0.56% | -6.80% | -21.22% |
-48.90% |
Recommendations
- April 2024 Renewals – If you are yet to secure your April 24 renewal, I would purchase asap. Time has run out and if the market moves against you there is no time to wait for it to retrace.
- October 2024 Renewals- Risk averse buyers should look at pricing now to see how this sits against your budget. Risk takers should look at pricing mid Q2.
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*Please note that the above figures are estimates based on current market conditions and should not be misconstrued as actual live prices.