Welcome to our October 2026 Energy Renewal Price Forecast. In this edition you will find:
- A forecast of gas and electricity renewal prices, together with our recommendations
- Changes to the Academy Trust Handbook and what they mean for energy procurement
- Market-wide Half-Hourly Settlement (MHHS) and what you need to know
- Information on qualifying for 0% VAT on electricity supplies
Market overview
UK wholesale gas and electricity prices have continued to rise, driven primarily by ongoing tensions and retaliatory actions involving the US and Iran, as well as concerns over gas supply availability across Europe this winter.
European gas storage levels remain significantly below what we would typically expect at this stage of the injection season. As a result, Europe still needs to secure substantial volumes of gas ahead of winter, creating additional demand and increasing the potential for market volatility over the coming months.
Indicative renewal rates
The following tables provide indicative gas and electricity unit rates to help you plan for upcoming energy contract renewals. Rates are as at 5 October 2026.
| Gas supply contract | Estimated unit rate (p/kWh)# | Variance over the last… | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 3 months | 12 months | ||
| April 2027 renewal | 6.41 | +12.54% | +42.08% | +45.44% |
| October 2027 renewal | 5.54 | +8.90% | +30.61% | +31.25% |
| Electricity supply contract | Estimated unit rate (p/kWh)# | Variance over the last… | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 3 months | 12 months | ||
| April 2027 renewal | 28.41 | +3.38% | +14.38% | +11.10% |
| October 2027 renewal | 26.52 | +1.74% | +10.63% | +7.45% |
# The rates shown are indicative estimates. Actual pricing will vary depending on consumption, meter configuration, contract length and prevailing market conditions. Larger energy consumers can often achieve lower unit rates.
Recommendations for your renewals
April 2027 renewals
- If you have not yet undertaken a market review or price discovery exercise, we recommend doing so now. Energy markets have moved upwards over recent weeks as geopolitical uncertainty has increased.
- If current market prices offer a saving against your existing contract, it may be worth considering securing those savings sooner rather than later. Wholesale markets remain susceptible to significant movement during the winter period.
October 2027 renewals
- More risk-averse buyers may wish to carry out a price discovery exercise now to establish budget expectations and assess available opportunities. If savings are available, securing a renewal or contract extension early could prove prudent.
- Buyers with a greater appetite for risk may prefer to monitor market developments through the remainder of 2026 and reassess conditions in the New Year.
In other news
– MHHS: has your supplier been in touch?
Have you received an email from your supplier about MHHS? Our article explains what it is and what it means for your organisation: MHHS explained: what the move to half-hourly electricity means for your business.
– Academy Trust Handbook 2026
For multi-academy trusts (MATs), the rules within the Academy Trust Handbook relating to procuring energy outside the DfE-approved framework process are now more flexible. Read more in Academy Trust Handbook 2026: what the new energy rule means for your trust.
– 0% VAT on qualifying electricity supplies
If some or all of your organisation currently qualifies for 5% VAT on electricity supplies, the temporary 0% VAT rate may apply from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027. The zero rate applies in Great Britain; Northern Ireland remains at 5%. Full details are in the GOV.UK guidance on the temporary zero rate of VAT for electricity.
Need guidance on your renewal?
If you need any specific guidance for your renewals, book an informal call. There is no charge and no obligation.
The figures above are estimates based on market conditions on 5 October 2026 and should not be taken as live prices. This article is general information, not advice on any individual contract.